The Mortgage Report: Jan. 4, 2021 2020 was a year that took pleasure in humiliating forecasters. From the remarkable bounce in housing, to the resilience of mortgage volumes, to the devastation in big-city rental markets, to the homeowner exodus from urban cores to the lows of contract mortgage rates, to the persistence of high qualifying rates — 2020 made the...
Never in history has a Canadian bank advertised a mortgage rate with a zero to the left of the decimal point. Fortunately, there’s a first for everything. Effective December 4, 2020, HSBC Canada—who’s made a name undercutting its big bank competition—is launching the lowest rate in Canadian history: 0.99%. This is a milestone rate, akin to landmark rates like BMO’s...
—The Mortgage Report: Nov. 30— Trudeau’s government said Monday that it plans to lift Canada’s debt ceiling by up to 57% as it embarks on record spending and deficits in the name of pandemic relief. Canada’s historic deficit just keeps on climbing. It’s now estimated at $381.6 billion for the current fiscal year, up from $343.2 billion this summer and...
—The Mortgage Report: Nov. 17— Remember that rate: 8 3/4%? Your average first-time buyer wouldn’t, as he/she would’ve been just seven years old at the time (1991). 8.75% was a tremendous 1-year fixed rate back then. But man, did it take a bite out of people’s budgets. Consider that on a standard $100,000 mortgage, you would’ve paid: $811 a month,...
—The Mortgage Report: Weekend Edition— Canada’s rate outlook got a boost this week from two influential developments: Promising vaccine news (20 potential vaccines are in late-stage trials, including Pfizer’s drug that’s reportedly over 90% effective), and The widespread acceptance of Joe Biden’s presidential victory. This much-needed dose of good news led investors to sell government bonds, which is typical when...
Bond yields shot up like a cannonball after news broke this morning of Pfizer’s positive vaccine trials. Canada’s 5-year swap rate, one of the best leading indicators of fixed mortgage rates, sailed to a 5-month high. Now, everyone’s trying to figure out how long it’ll take before this translates into above-target inflation, which would be the Bank of Canada’s trigger...
—The Mortgage Report: Oct. 29— 1.29% is now the variable rate to beat, in Ontario at least. This new rate is: effectively equivalent to prime – 1.16%, a discount we haven’t seen since the COVID implosion last March 11 bps below the lowest 5-year fixed in the province (that being 1.40% for default-insured mortgages). Unfortunately, 1.29% is only available on...
Quick Rundown Today’s Announcement:No change to rates Overnight rate:0.25% Prime Rate:2.45% (also no change; seePrime Rate) Market Rate Forecast:No BoC hikes until at least 2023 BoC’s Headline Quote: “The Governing Council will hold the policy interest rate at the effective lower bound until economic slack is absorbed so that the 2% inflation target is sustainably achieved. In our current projection,...
—The Mortgage Report: Oct. 23— It seems HSBC Canada may start selling through mortgage brokers once again. The bank had a “Head of Mortgage Broker Channel” job posting on its website until this morning. We then confirmed with a separate reliable source that the news appears to be true. HSBC was not able to comment by press time. The move...
—The Mortgage Report: Oct. 7— Toronto condo listings have exploded 215% to a record high, reports Bloomberg. And they’re projected to be even higher in October, according to HouseSigma. Driving that surprising number: skittish investors (many with negative cash flow given surging rental listings and a 14% y/y drop in rents) “elevator phobia” people coming off mortgage deferrals relatively higher...
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