Daily Mortgage Report – May 5 Trap Door for GTA Home Values: The average home price in the Greater Toronto Area fell a startling 11.8% versus March (those details). And Toronto’s drop wasn’t alone. Among the larger cities reporting April prices, Ottawa fell 6.8%, Calgary was down 5.3% and London dropped 5.4%. Vancouver is holding up for now, at basically...
The Daily Mortgage Report – May 4 Variable Advantage Fades: The lowest widely available 5-year fixed rates are now just 20 basis points more than the lowest variable rates. That differential has shrunk considerably in the last month or so, causing some would-be variable takers to give up and go fixed. RateSpy simulations confirm it would now only take two...
Today’s Rate Menu: After a three-week hiatus, variable mortgage rates are back down to prime – 0.50% (a 1.95% effective rate, including cash back) in some provinces—but only if you need a default-insured mortgage. The lowest widely advertised uninsured rates remain HSBC’s 2-year fixed at 2.34% and the fully open Tangerine HELOC at 2.35%. Sales Should Surge Post-Reopening: Home purchases...
Hopefully Not Reality: Despite the government’s relief plan, including mortgage payment deferrals—1 in 10 (9%) of mortgagors say they won’t be able to pay their mortgage in three months or less (Source: DART & maru/BLUE Survey). Few in the industry expect anywhere near 9% defaults, but the numbers we do get may surprise people. Back in the 1980s, prime mortgage...
Rate Conversions: Now Over-rated: Today’s best variable rates give borrowers a half-point head start versus a 5-year fixed. If one assumes the latest widely-held rate forecasts are correct (see below), prime – 0.35% or better variables still have a projected edge based on interest cost alone. And many are still willing to make that bet despite rate discounts being 50+...
Canada could see government interest rates below zero for the first time in history. That’s not a prediction, but it’s a real possibility. The probability of recession has surged from the coronavirus pandemic and oil market collapse. The Bank of Canada has just 125 basis points of rate-cutting left before it hits zero. That is insufficient ammunition to fight the...
If you want to know what investors think of Canada’s economic prospects, this chart almost says it all: This sort of meltdown signals raw fear. Such moves are not usually reflective of just a little economic blip ahead, but a king-sized economic crisis. No hyperbole intended. What does it mean for rates? It means rate expectations are falling by the...
AbsoTrumpingLutely. The more useful question is, what are the chances it will? Economists project Canada’s economy could shrink 1.8% in 2020 if the U.S. pushes us into a global trade war. In that case, we’d fall into recession in late 2019 or early 2020, they say. Canadian exports would dive, partly due to U.S. tariffs making our goods too expensive...
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