—The Mortgage Report: July 3— Long Road Back for Jobs: Avid rate watchers all want to know the same thing: how long will unemployment stay elevated? The answer to that is essential to knowing how long rates could remain in a trough. On Thursday, we got a sobering projection from a reputable source. The non-partisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) says...
—The Mortgage Report: June 29— Stress Test Fix Overdue: Ottawa was sensible to pause the mortgage stress test changes “given the marketplace uncertainty in March,” says Paul Taylor, President and CEO, Mortgage Professionals Canada (MPC). “However, as we begin to open businesses again, and as economists are generally expecting a housing price downturn, now is the time for OSFI and...
— The Mortgage Report : June 17 — Prices Slide: The Bank of Canada wants average core inflation at/near 2%, but it’s currently 1.67% and diving. That’s noteworthy for borrowers given inflation expectations are a primary determinant of mortgage rates. Inflation’s descent may slow thanks to rebounding oil prices, but it’ll continue dropping economists say—potentially to lows we haven’t seen...
— The Mortgage Report : June 16 — Tiff on the Hot Seat: In his first news public hearing since being minted as BoC Governor, Tiff Macklem got pelted with questions from MPs. Among his notable statements: “The biggest risk to Canadians not being able to repay their mortgage is not having a job.” “…We’re in a deep hole and...
The Mortgage Report – June 12 Double-dip: As is often the case, bad news for the economy is good news for interest costs. Investor worries over a potential second wave of COVID-related shutdowns helped push 5-year Canada Mortgage Bond (CMB) yields to an all-time low on Monday. Recent Bank of Canada buying might have also helped. The reason this matters...
The Mortgage Report – June 12 Deferrals Appearing on Credit Reports: Credit bureaus are alerting lenders when you’ve requested a payment deferral. If you’ve deferred your mortgage, Equifax says you should see one or both of these statements in the comments section of your credit report: Deferred Payment Affected by Natural or Declared Disaster Mortgage deferrals aren’t supposed to hurt...
Mortgage Report – June 11 A Thursday Thumping: Fixed mortgage rates follow bond yields most of the time. Yet, despite stocks surging since March on recovery hopes, bonds have been arguably more realistic (less optimistic). Well, today stocks converged meaningfully with bonds…finally. The talking heads on TV say the Fed’s outlook and accelerating COVID cases scared the market and we’ve...
The Mortgage Report – June 10 Dot Dot Dot Plot: The U.S. Federal Reserve, which sways Canadian rates more than many realize, was more pessimistic than expected in its rate announcement today. It’s “Dot Plot” (the Fed’s official rate forecast) now projects no rate hikes for 2020, 2021 and likely 2022. It’s unlikely Canada deviates much from the Fed’s path...
A Recovery for the Ages: Against all odds, and despite the biggest unemployment surge in a 3-month span ever, stocks have erased 2020 losses. ICYMI: Private default insurer Genworth Canada saw no need to follow CMHC and tighten its mortgage rules. Canada Guaranty, which has the lowest loss ratio in the mortgage insurance industry, made the same determination, saying, “Given...
The Mortgage Report – May 28 Now in the 3s: For the first time ever, a Canadian reverse mortgage provider has a 5-year fixed term under 4%. Equitable Bank announced the offer Thursday, which applies to its 5-year “Lump-sum” reverse mortgage. Equitable trimmed all of its other reverse mortgage rates by 15 bps as well. That’s a big win for...
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