—The Mortgage Report: Weekend Edition— Canada’s rate outlook got a boost this week from two influential developments: Promising vaccine news (20 potential vaccines are in late-stage trials, including Pfizer’s drug that’s reportedly over 90% effective), and The widespread acceptance of Joe Biden’s presidential victory. This much-needed dose of good news led investors to sell government bonds, which is typical when...
Quick Rundown Today’s Announcement:No change to rates Overnight rate:0.25% Prime Rate:2.45% (also no change; seePrime Rate) Market Rate Forecast:No BoC hikes until at least 2023 BoC’s Headline Quote: “The Governing Council will hold the policy interest rate at the effective lower bound until economic slack is absorbed so that the 2% inflation target is sustainably achieved. In our current projection,...
—The Mortgage Report: Oct. 21— Canada’s budget deficit will end 2020 “near 20% of GDP,” according to the IMF. “That represents the fourth-highest projected deficit in the world, after Libya, Aruba and the Maldives,” says Bloomberg News. With that degree of fiscal hemorrhaging in Ottawa, bond yields (and hence fixed mortgage rates) would jump sooner were it not for Bank...
—The Mortgage Report: Weekend Edition— Some commentators proclaim that home “prices can only go up,” but HouseSigma’s Market Temperature gauge shows it’s not peaches and cream everywhere. Market Temperature gauges the number of condos sold versus the number of active condo listings (inventory). Month-to-date, it’s plunged to the lowest level in HouseSigma’s records. If we close October at these levels...
“We are not actively discussing negative interest rates at this point, but it’s in our toolkit and never say never.” Bank of Canada Governor, Tiff Macklem That comment from Canada’s monetary kahuna, Tiff Macklem, put a glimmer of hope in the eyes of variable-rate mortgagors this week. By leaving the door open to sub-zero rates, even if just a crack,...
Bond yields heavily influence what people pay for a mortgage. In general, the more government bond-buying there is, the lower fixed mortgage rates go. Explainer: Bond prices and bond rates (yields) always move inversely. Fixed mortgage rates are benchmarked against bond yields. Governments around the world are manipulating mortgage rates by buying their nations’ own debt. Take the U.S. Federal...
—The Mortgage Report: Sept. 10— CIBC has dropped the following special fixed rates: 5yr (high-ratio): 2.07% to 1.97% 5yr (uninsured): 2.24% to 2.14% 7yr: 2.71% to 2.61% It’s the first time ever that a Big 6 Canadian bank has widely and openly advertised a 5-year fixed rate under 2%, albeit it’s only on default-insured mortgages. This development is more symbolic...
Quick Rundown Today’s Announcement:No change to rates Overnight rate:0.25% Prime Rate:2.45% (also no change; seePrime Rate) Market Rate Forecast:No BoC hikes until at least 2023 BoC’s Headline Quote: “The Governing Council will hold the policy interest rate at the effective lower bound [intended to be 0.25%] until economic slack is absorbed so that the 2% inflation target is sustainably achieved.”...
—The Mortgage Report: July 31— Snapping Up Bonds: Fixed-rate mortgage shoppers dreaming of lower rates better hope for lots of bond buying in the months to come. And that’s what we’re getting from the Bank of Canada. The BoC is buying a lot of 5-year bonds, which heavily influence 5-year fixed mortgage pricing. Under theGovernment of Canada Bond Purchase Program...
—The Mortgage Report: Weekend Edition— It Might as Well Have: On Wednesday, the Bank of Canada threw caution to the wind and changed its playbook. It pledged not to hike rates until “the 2 percent inflation target is sustainably achieved.” The significance of that statement is now sinking in and here’s why. Normally, the Bank of Canada doesn’t wait for...
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