As much as academics advise against it, people (consciously or subconsciously) try to predict interest rates before choosing a mortgage. But, interestingly, they don’t look very far into the future when making these forecasts. “…Households are forward-looking over relatively short periods of time,” research shows. A 2015 international study byCristian Badarinza, John Y. Campbell and Tarun Ramadorai found that “the...
Mortgage debt has been in the crosshairs of federal regulators for years. But considerably less attention has been paid recently to unsecured debt—i.e. credit card—balances for which have been growing at an alarming pace. And with the 2016/2018 mortgage stress tests crimping the amount homeowners can borrow at low rates, it’s likely that even more Canadians will be forced to...
Two-thirds of adults are saving for retirement, above and beyond forced-contribution government programs like CPP. That’s the good news. The bad news is that 35% of those approaching retirement (those over 55) have less than $100,000 saved up. $100k won’t get them far over their next 25+ years of life expectancy, even if they’re receiving: Old Age Security and the...
The latest party trying to win your vote with promises of housing affordability is the Conservative Party of Canada. Here’s a quicklook at what it announced Monday… Idea #1 Conservative Proposal: “Fix the mortgage stress test to ensure that first-time homebuyers aren’t unnecessarily prevented from accessing mortgages and work with OSFI to remove the stress test from mortgage renewals to...
Big banks reign over Canada’s mortgage market, but one segment that they particularly dominate in is readvanceable mortgages. If you want a good readvanceable you have very few choices outside of the Big 6 banks.Meridian Credit Union is one of those very few. The company’s Flex-Equity Mortgage Line has all the trappings of a major bank readvanceable, with added benefits....
Canadian mortgage rates follow U.S. rates like spring follows winter. So today’s U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut is most relevant indeed. The Fed chopped the floor for its key target rate by 25 bps today to 1.75%—the same as the Bank of Canada. It’s the second cut in 49 days, but only the second cut since 2008. As usual, the...
Bond Bloodbath It was a grisly Friday the 13th in the bond market.Investors ran from bonds like they were being chased by Jason Voorhees with a chainsaw. U.S. 5-year bonds crashed (yields soared 12 bps), which drove Canada’s 5-year to a two-month high. For non-bondy types, bond selling drives up rates since the two move inversely. Catalysts for the carnage...
It didn’t take the government long to propose changes to the First-Time Home Buyer Incentive (FTHBI). Just 10 days after the program launched, and following criticism that the Liberals’ new program didn’t address housing needs in high-priced markets, the Libs have tweaked it. Effective as soon as November, if you live in one of three high-cost regions, qualifying for the...
Some people think we’re in a bond market bubble. If that’s true, and we’re not declaring it is, the last four days are kinda what you get when a bubble pops. Bond investors are in a momentary state of panic. Canada’s bellwether 5-year government yield has catapulted 31 basis points in just four trading days. The last time that happened...
Knowing the future wouldn’t help you pick the right mortgage. Unless you knew allthe future. Imagine a fantasyland case where it was 100% certain that all mortgage rates would be higher in five years. With that priceless information most people would take a 2.49% five-year fixed over a 2.59% one-year fixed. But initial rates and ending rates are only two...
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