Falling Back to Earth: Fixed mortgage rates are at multi-week lows. In the last week, multiple big lenders have cut 5 to 15+ bps. The key reasons: rates are descending in the fixed-income market (where lenders fund most of their fixed-rate mortgages), and credit spreads are narrowing (meaning lenders are paying smaller risk and liquidity premiums to investors to obtain...
Hopefully Not Reality: Despite the government’s relief plan, including mortgage payment deferrals—1 in 10 (9%) of mortgagors say they won’t be able to pay their mortgage in three months or less (Source: DART & maru/BLUE Survey). Few in the industry expect anywhere near 9% defaults, but the numbers we do get may surprise people. Back in the 1980s, prime mortgage...
Rate Conversions: Now Over-rated: Today’s best variable rates give borrowers a half-point head start versus a 5-year fixed. If one assumes the latest widely-held rate forecasts are correct (see below), prime – 0.35% or better variables still have a projected edge based on interest cost alone. And many are still willing to make that bet despite rate discounts being 50+...
Stock Losses Cut in Half: In another hint that the worst may be over in the COVID crisis, one of the most-watched stock indices in the world—the S&P 500—has retraced 50% of it’s massive COVID-related decline. Although, with far uglier economic data ahead many are calling this a shorting opportunity. We won’t pretend to know if they’re right but here’s...
Variable Discounts Start Improving: This week, we reported that falling risk premiums are helping to lower costs for mortgage lenders. And it’s starting to pay off. In the last few days, we’ve seen various lenders start to drop 5-year fixed rates 10 bps or so, as well as cut variable rates (i.e., improve their discounts) by 10 to 20 bps....
Good News for Variables: There’s hope for better variable rates yet. The “prime – BA spread” is widening (getting bigger). That means banks may soon be making more money on variable mortgages, which eventually means they’ll offer better discounts off prime rate (for new borrowers). With the Prime-BA spread back to 1.66%, the pressure to raise variable rates has subsided....
Optimism Returns: Markets rose across the board Monday, including 5-year rates in Canada’s bond market. Normally that would put upward pressure on funding costs, and hence fixed mortgage rates. But we’re simultaneously seeing risk/liquidity premiums (the extra lenders have to pay for mortgage capital) decline. Temporary Income: Some lenders are now considering government COVID-19 assistance as income when re-underwriting already-approved...
3:14 p.m. Update A Half Million Mortgage Deferrals: That’s what banks are up to now, says the Canadian Bankers Association. And that doesn’t include non-bank lenders. More than 10% of Big 6 bank borrowers are now skipping/deferring mortgage payments, a number the CBA says will “increase over the coming weeks.” All told, deferrals have freed up $663 million of monthly...
4:47 p.m. Update Rubber Stamping: TD’s CEO says the bank is approving “virtually all” mortgage deferral requests. It has approved 60,000 so far. “If this [crisis] continues for a longer period, governments will act [again]…” he said. He also noted that TD is not seeing a “dramatic” increase in HELOC borrowing thus far. That begs the question, how does he...
Sub-1% Rates: One of the greatest economic tragedies in Canada’s history is unfolding before our eyes. When we talk about how low mortgage rates are, it can’t be stressed enough that no one wanted this to be the reason for it. But if there’s one silver lining, it’s variable-rate borrowing costs. 1 in 5 borrowers took out a variable-rate mortgage...
log in
