—The Mortgage Report: Weekend Edition— It Might as Well Have: On Wednesday, the Bank of Canada threw caution to the wind and changed its playbook. It pledged not to hike rates until “the 2 percent inflation target is sustainably achieved.” The significance of that statement is now sinking in and here’s why. Normally, the Bank of Canada doesn’t wait for...
—The Mortgage Report: July 16— Falling Equilibrium: The Bank of Canada now estimates that Canada’s “neutral rate” is 25 bps lower than it was last year. The neutral rate is the policy interest rate that keeps inflation at its 2% target without stimulating or slowing the economy over the medium to long term. The Bank now pegs neutral at 2.50%,...
Quick Summary Today’s Announcement:No change to rates Overnight rate:0.25% Prime Rate:2.45% (also no change; seePrime Rate) Market Rate Forecast:No BoC hikes until at least 2023 BoC’s Headline Quote: “…The Bank is prepared to provide further monetary stimulus as needed.” BoC on the Economy: “The Bank expects economic slack to persist as the recovery in demand lags that of supply, creating...
—The Mortgage Report: July 14— Reverse Record: Once the scorn of financial planners across the land, reverse mortgages are increasingly becoming cornerstones of retirement planning. The main reason: rates. Equitable Bank just keeps driving reverse mortgage rates lower. Today it launched a barrage of new deals, including a 3.49% one-year fixed. That’s the lowest reverse mortgage rate in Canadian history...
—The Mortgage Report: July 13— False Start: Parts of the U.S are going back into lockdown, Fed officials are warning the economy is regressing and Ottawa is extending wage subsidies until December. That’s the kind of ominous news that makes people buy bonds. And if enough investors think the economy is heading back into the toilet, bonds will go up...
—The Mortgage Report: July 9— Play Stocks or Play it Safe?: That’s a common question for otherwise debt-free mortgagors with nothing else to do with their money. It’s not a question we can answer for everyone, given all the personal variables to consider. But here’s an interesting look at what might have happened had you got a standard mortgage 10...
—The Mortgage Report: July 8— Avoiding the Cliff: If six-month payment deferrals end as planned in September, tens of thousands of homeowners will default on their mortgages—no question about it. CMHC calls this the looming “deferral cliff,” and analysts want to know what the government will do about it. If Australia is any guide, deferrals could very well be extended....
—The Mortgage Report: July 7— Price Expectations vs. Reality: “…Consumer expectations for house price growth in Canada dropped to zero,” according to a BoC survey released yesterday. But the data is about a month and a half old. Since then, home prices in the Greater Toronto Area have broken their 2017 record high. Imagine where prices would be if employment...
—The Mortgage Report: July 3— Long Road Back for Jobs: Avid rate watchers all want to know the same thing: how long will unemployment stay elevated? The answer to that is essential to knowing how long rates could remain in a trough. On Thursday, we got a sobering projection from a reputable source. The non-partisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) says...
—The Happy Canada Day Report: July 1— Fixed or Bust: Canada’s lowest nationally available conventional variable rate is just nine basis points cheaper than a comparable 5-year fixed rate. That minuscule “fixed-variable” spread is now 80% narrower than its 10-year average. In other words, the market is no longer compensating new borrowers for the risk of a floating-rate mortgage. And...
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