By The Spy on
December 15, 2019
The difference between a lender’s cost to lend for 10 years versus five years is near an all-time low. Yet,10-year ratesremain too high to attract much interest. This chart below is one example of how competitive basic 10-year funding costs have become. It shows a long-term view of Canada Mortgage Bond (CMB) yields. Lenders use CMBs to fund insured 5-...
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By The Spy on
December 13, 2019
For two years, the federal government and regulators have been talking up the virtues of their mortgage stress test. So, imagine the surprise today when the Prime Minister asked the Minister of Finance to: “Review and consider recommendations from financial agencies related to making the borrower stress test more dynamic.” The request came in a mandate letter sent by Trudeau’s...
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By The Spy on
November 30, 2019
It’s become easy to move your money from one financial institution (FI) to another online. Major banks hate it. Small FIs love it. The internet lets upstarts swipe market share from the big boys with little more than a great rate and some media coverage.It’s a formula that will increasingly siphon deposits from well-capitalized household names (the Big 6 Banks)...
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By The Spy on
November 22, 2019
The First-Time Home Buyer Incentive can’t be considered a dud, yet. But it’s surely not impressing anyone. What is the FTHBI? As the feds put it, “the government offers you financing [i.e., a 5-10% bigger down payment] without interest. This helps reduce your monthly mortgage payment without increasing your down payment.” One of its champions, CMHC CEO Evan Siddall, said...
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By The Spy on
October 21, 2019
For young homebuyers wondering what mortgage offerings politicians will gift them post-election, the answer is now clearer. The Liberal win in Monday’s federal election suggests first-time buyers will likely see a more flexible First-time Home Buyer Incentive(FTHBI). That was the Libs’ key election promise on the housing file. “We will…increase the qualifying value to nearly $800,000 in the places where...
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By The Spy on
September 29, 2019
Mortgage debt has been in the crosshairs of federal regulators for years. But considerably less attention has been paid recently to unsecured debt—i.e. credit card—balances for which have been growing at an alarming pace. And with the 2016/2018 mortgage stress tests crimping the amount homeowners can borrow at low rates, it’s likely that even more Canadians will be forced to...
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By The Spy on
September 23, 2019
The latest party trying to win your vote with promises of housing affordability is the Conservative Party of Canada. Here’s a quicklook at what it announced Monday… Idea #1 Conservative Proposal: “Fix the mortgage stress test to ensure that first-time homebuyers aren’t unnecessarily prevented from accessing mortgages and work with OSFI to remove the stress test from mortgage renewals to...
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By The Spy on
September 14, 2019
Bond Bloodbath It was a grisly Friday the 13th in the bond market.Investors ran from bonds like they were being chased by Jason Voorhees with a chainsaw. U.S. 5-year bonds crashed (yields soared 12 bps), which drove Canada’s 5-year to a two-month high. For non-bondy types, bond selling drives up rates since the two move inversely. Catalysts for the carnage...
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By The Spy on
September 12, 2019
It didn’t take the government long to propose changes to the First-Time Home Buyer Incentive (FTHBI). Just 10 days after the program launched, and following criticism that the Liberals’ new program didn’t address housing needs in high-priced markets, the Libs have tweaked it. Effective as soon as November, if you live in one of three high-cost regions, qualifying for the...
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By The Spy on
July 22, 2019
“There’s no doubt that mortgage rate declines since the start of this year have contributed to stabilize Canada’s housing market,”said RBC economist Robert Hogue in a report last week. That might be news to some, given the rates used to qualify borrowers for approval have barely moved in 2019. We asked Mr. Hogue to share what he sees and he...
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